The research, entitled When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts, shows that robots will outperform people in many activities as early as in the next ten years. They will have learnt language translating by 2024, truck driving by 2027, work in retail by 2031, and be writing bestsellers by 2049. In 2053, they will even have mastered the work of top surgeons.
According to the scientists addressed, robots will be better than people in all work activities within 45 years. With 50% probability, full automation of the human workforce will be complete within 120 years.
The easiest tasks to automate are those which don't require physical manipulation with things. Manipulating with objects in the ever-changing real world is still relatively difficult for machines. However, within five years, robots will be able to fold laundry better than people.
It is more difficult for machines to handle communication in order to replace such people as e.g. shop assistants or truck drivers, which, however, should still be achieved by 2031.
The most difficult things for machines to master include everything that people spend years learning. Such activities include e.g. intuitive decision making, complex physical environments, abstract thinking, and so on. That is why robots will only be able to write novels by 2049, work as surgeons by 2053, and conduct mathematical research and publish the results in professional academic journals by 2060.
According to Katja Grace, head of the research, these conclusions serve as a reminder that we are facing a radical change. She is convinced that there is no activity artificial intelligence could not learn to perform. In some cases, however, machines will hardly replace humans, such as in church roles where people will continue to prefer contact with a living person.
What and when robots will learn
- 2021: laundry folding
- 2024: language translations
- 2026: writing high school essays
- 2027: truck driving
- 2028: composing US Top 40 pop songs
- 2031: work of retail salespeople
- 2049: writing novels which become New York Times Best Sellers
- 2053: surgical operations
- 2060: research and results publishing in the field of mathematics
- 2062: performing all work activities on a higher level compared to people
- 2137: full automation of the human workforce
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