Another factor that distracts people and fosters biases is their mutual relations and reputations within the group. These things play a role during discussions. Concepts of conformity or (non-)intervention of bystanders that render group discussions ineffective have been well described in the psychology literature.
When does discussion help people’s judgment?
The researchers tested precisely this issue. First, they asked for independent estimates; then, after a short conversation among participants, revised estimates were requested. Subsequently a comparison was made of the average of the two estimates.
The key factor at play
Researchers also measured how confident the participants were about their answers. Was the most accurate estimate that of the most confident person, or was the person providing the most accurate answer the least confident? The questions were challenging, so it was by no means obvious to whom participants should listen. In the absence of information about who is well or poorly informed, individuals rely on confidence expression as a guide.
When a group listens to the most confident person, it is helpful only if that confident person has pretty good judgment.
Illusion of effective discussion
Groups became more confident in their answers about 90% of the time after the discussion. However, in reality, the answers after discussion improved only about 60% of the time. In other words, a group's confidence increased but their accuracy did not.
People simply don’t realise that a conversation can have negative effects on the accuracy of their judgments. Talking to others makes people feel more self-assured; therefore, self-awareness is necessary in order for teams not to fall victim to overconfident, persuasive individuals.
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